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Dogecoin trader explains why shorting DOGE now makes sense

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Dogecoin (DOGE) has surged practically 100% quarter-to-date (QTD) on hopes that Elon Musk would combine the token onto the Twitter platform. Nevertheless, DOGE’s potential to proceed its uptrend within the coming weeks is low, one standard market analyst argues.

Brief Dogecoin arduous?

Unbiased, pseudonymous market analyst GCR mentioned he’s reasonably brief on DOGE primarily based on its value’s latest response to a Musk tweet. Notably, DOGE fashioned an area high at $0.158 on Nov. 1. The identical day, Musk shared an image of his pet Shiba Inu sporting a t-shirt with the Twitter brand.

GCR argues that the Musk impact is sporting off with regards to Dogecoin’s potential integration into Twitter, that means that a lot of the positive factors are already priced in. Due to this fact, if the precise integration occurs, it is going to seemingly change into a sell-the-news occasion. 

Overbought correction begins

In the meantime, Dogecoin continued its correction transfer on Nov. 4, three days after topping out at $0.158.

DOGE’s value dropped to as little as $0.115 on Nov. 4, partially attributable to rumors of Twitter pausing its crypto pockets growth mission. That introduced the token’s internet share correction from the Nov. 1 native high to just about 27%.

As well as, the draw back transfer surfaced attributable to its extremely overbought conditions with the very best relative energy index (RSI) since April 2021.

DOGE/USD three-day value chart. Supply; TradingView

The correction has prompted Dogecoin value to retest its December 2021-Might 2022 help (outlined by the $0.108-$0.124 vary, the crimson bar within the chart above) for a possible pullback. The coin might attain $0.185, a stage coinciding with its 0.236 Fib line, if the restoration happens.

Conversely, a break under the $0.108-$0.124 vary might have DOGE drop to $0.055 as its major draw back goal, down 55% from present value ranges.

DOGE on-chain knowledge

Moreover, Dogecoin’s on-chain knowledge reveals a constant drop in key metrics coming into November, which might add extra sell-pressure.

Associated: Shiba Inu price drops to record low vs Dogecoin — Will history repeat with a 150% rally?

For example, DOGE’s Twitter-led value rally coincided with a pointy rise in whale transaction depend (value over $100,000), suggesting that they supported the upside transfer. However after Nov. 1, fewer whales have interacted with the Dogecoin community.

Dogecoin whale transaction depend. Supply: Santiment

In the meantime, the Dogecoin provide distribution throughout addresses holding between 1,000 and 10 million DOGE tokens has fallen alongside the worth. Conversely, the provision managed by addresses holding greater than 10 million DOGE tokens has elevated modestly.

Dogecoin provide distribution. Supply: Santiment

As well as, the addresses holding under 100 DOGE have been growing, hinting that retail buyers have been offsetting whales’ promoting strain to a sure diploma.

The views and opinions expressed listed below are solely these of the writer and don’t essentially mirror the views of Cointelegraph.com. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails danger, it’s best to conduct your individual analysis when making a call.